Author: Derek Ramirez
Previously, we explored the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s (“Philly Fed”) leading and coincident indices and their assessments of economic growth. Using their data, how is North Carolina’s economy performing relative to other states? Are there any differences in our trends headed into next year?
The Philly Fed coincident index is useful for measuring the current status of state economies. To make meaningful comparisons across states, 
we will look at the 12-month change in the coincident index for the Southeast. The table to the right shows each state’s values for September 2013 and 2014. North Carolina is tied for the second- largest growth in our index value, just behind Kentucky. Virginia is low on the list, with only a 0.5 percent increase in the last year. North Carolina also has the second- highest index value in the Southeast behind Georgia. The index is set to equal 100 on July 1992, so Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina have experienced the most relative growth since that time. Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana are three of the lowest growing states since 1992 and have also seen slower growth than the rest of the Southeast, except Virginia, in the last 12 months.
The leading index from the Philly Fed provides a look into where the economy may be headed in the next six months. They conveniently provide a map of the leading index values for all states on their website. The map is posted below.
Here the majority of the Southeast, including North Carolina, has a strong expected growth for the next three months. West Virginia is one of only three states in the nation projected to see a decline in the coming months. So the economic status of the Southeast headed into 2015 looks positive, with North Carolina, in particular, expecting growth.
Readers may note the different leading index values in this article compared to our previous post. The Philly Fed released revised leading index values on Oct. 29, 2014.