Author: Heather Haught
Recent research by The Pew Charitable Trusts demonstrates that between 2008 and 2013, health care surpassed manufacturing as the largest private employer in most U.S. counties.1 Given the role that manufacturing has traditionally played in the health of North Carolina’s economy, it is unclear whether this pattern exists at the state level. In an effort to better understand this issue, we examined the percentage of total employment constituted by manufacturing vs. health care in 2008 and 2013 in each county. It should be noted that we relied upon data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to examine this issue, whereas Pew drew data from the U.S. Census County Business Patterns in 2008 and 2013.
We found that in 2008, manufacturing accounted for a larger proportion of total employment than health care in 52 counties whereas health care accounted for a larger proportion than manufacturing in only 42 counties. Six counties were unaccounted for in 2008 due to insufficient data. Consistent with the Pew report, this pattern shifted in 2013 such that health care accounted for a larger proportion of total employment in 56 counties whereas manufacturing accounted for a larger proportion in only 39 counties. Five counties were unaccounted for in 2013 due to insufficient data. Overall, 13 counties transitioned between 2008 and 2013 such that health care now accounts for a larger proportion of total employment than manufacturing. One county transitioned in the opposite direction such that manufacturing now accounts for a larger proportion of total employment. These counties are highlighted in the figure below. Interestingly, transition counties were not confined to a single area, but spread across the state.
These findings suggest that while manufacturing and health care both account for significant proportions of total employment in North Carolina, health care accounts for a larger proportion. This pattern is consistent with a general decline in manufacturing across the U.S., but may also be indicative of other factors such as aging workers or greater automation.