Fun Findings from the Projections

Want to try to see into the future? LEAD recently completed long term regional industry and occupation projections at both the state and local levels.

Author: Jeff Rosenthal

“I just want to say one word to you…Plastics.”

Was this memorable quote from the 1967 film ‘The Graduate’ good advice suggesting a growing industry in Southern California at the time?  Perhaps.  But today in North Carolina, if we had one word to describe the industrial future, it would probably be ‘Services’.  If we had a few words to describe a specific fast growing industry, it may be ‘Ambulatory Health Care Services’.

LEAD recently completed the 2014-2024 long term industry and occupation projections.  You can find these at http://nccareers.org.  The projections were produced at both the state and regional levels. 

General findings:

  • The state is projected to grow at a 1.2% annualized growth each year.  This roughly translates to growth of over 550,000 jobs from 2014-2024 – roughly twice the number of new jobs added in the previous 10-year period in the QCEW industry data (278,000 jobs added between 2004-2014 – for an annual growth rate of 0.7%). 
  • In general, growth is projected across about 80% (75/94) of sub-sector industries and about 83% (665/806) of detailed occupations at the state level.
  • The greater Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham areas show the greatest numerical growth with each region projected to grow over 165,000 jobs from 2014-2024.
  • The Wilmington area shows the greatest percentage growth with 21% projected growth from 2014-2024- an annualized growth rate of 1.9%.
  • The Rocky Mount area is the only region of the state projected to experience a decline in jobs.

Industry findings:

  • The top 5 industries (sub-sector level) projected to grow the most jobs in the state are (job growth in parentheses):
    1. Food and Drinking Places (61,550)
    2. Ambulatory Health Care Services (59,668)
    3. Administrative and Support Services (42,173)
    4. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (39,870)
    5. Hospitals (35,531)
  • Of the top 10 industries projected to grow the most jobs, only 4 pay above the state average weekly wage for all industries ($895).
  • The top 5 industries (sub-sector level) projected to grow the fastest in the state are (annualized growth rate in parentheses, minimum growth 1,000 workers):
    1. Ambulatory Health Care Services (2.8%)
    2. Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities (2.7%)
    3. Nursing and Residential Care Facilities (2.5%)
    4. Management of Companies and Enterprises (2.5%)
    5. Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction (2.5%)
  • Of the top 10 industries projected to grow the fastest, 8 pay above the state all industry average weekly wage.
  • Several industries are projected to grow across most of the state.
  • Retail Trade, Real Estate & Rental & Leasing, and Accommodation & Food Services are projected to grow in all 16 regions across the state.
  • Accommodation & Food Services and Health Care & Social Assistance are projected to show both the largest and fastest growth (Top 5) in most of the 16 regions.
  • Retail Trade, Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services, and Construction are among the Top 5 largest growing industries in a majority of regions across the state.
  • Construction, Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services, Management of Companies & Enterprises, and Real Estate & Rental & Leasing are among the Top 5 fastest growing industries in a majority of regions across the state.

Occupation findings:

  • Food Preparation and Serving Related (about 69,000 jobs), Office and Administrative Support (about 58,000 jobs) and Sales and Related Occupations (about 56,000 jobs) are projected to grow the most in the state, and consistently represent the three largest groups by employment in all sub-regions.
  • Healthcare Support Occupations (2.7% annualized growth rate); Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (2.0%); Computer and Mathematical Occupations (1.9%); and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (1.6%) are projected to be the fastest growing occupational groups in the state, and across most of the regions.
  • Statewide, more than half of the new jobs will require either no formal education or only a high school diploma.  The highest demand for occupations that typically require a Bachelor’s Degree for entry are found in the Greenville, Raleigh-Durham, and Charlotte regions.

 

By using the tools available from http://nccareers.org, you can delve into information about thousands of industries and occupations across the regions of your interest.  For instance, if you’re interested in site location or training programs in skilled trades, you can see that Construction and Extraction Occupations are projected to grow the most (9,436) and fastest (1.9%) in the Charlotte area.  You can also confirm that the Triangle area (Raleigh-Durham) has the highest projected growth in the state in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (23,372), though the fastest growth is in the Wilmington area (3.1% annualized growth rate).

As for plastics? 

Plastics & Rubber Products Manufacturing (NAICS 326000) is projected to gain 512 jobs statewide over 10 years with an annualized growth rate of 0.2%.  If you’re interested in the region with the most (and fastest) growth in this industry, it’s the Greensboro area with 894 openings over 10 years and an annualized growth rate of 1.6%.

Please look out for our follow up blog post which dives into more detailed occupations and the Star Jobs ratings associated with these detailed occupations, and an entry next month that uses this data for more specific policy-relevant analyses!

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