A Slow Jobs Recovery in the Sandhills

The Sandhills Prosperity Zone has undergone a transformation in its economy since the turn of the century—while its population has grown (mainly through natural increase rather than in-migration), the number of jobs has actually fallen by 1.7 percent.¹ At the same time, the industry mix of the region has shifted in ways typical of other rural regions of the state—with a decline in manufacturing and a shift to jobs in health care, retail, and accommodation and food service. While manufacturing is still important to the region, the mix of types of manufacturing is different. While this shift from goods-producing to service-producing has occurred throughout the state, however the Sandhills region has not gained enough jobs to grow their economy to the same extent as the state.

Slow and Uneven Population Growth

The Sandhills Region population added almost 81,000 people from 2000 to 2015 (10.2% growth), a period during which the state grew by 24.4 percent.² Most of this growth took place in Cumberland, Moore, Hoke, and Robeson Counties. The highest percentage growth occurred in Hoke County (52.6%) and Moore County (25.7%). The remaining counties--Sampson, Bladen, Columbus, and Montgomery-- added a few thousand individuals, while Richmond and Scotland lost population slightly during this period.

As with the state, most of the growth occurred from 2000 to 2009 and slowed from 2010 to 2015. During the past five years, the region experienced net out-migration, which was offset by natural increases. Only 3 counties grew significantly in the past 5 years--Hoke (10.3%), Moore (7.1%), and Cumberland (3%)—while the rest were flat or lost population. Only 2 counties in the region had net in-migration—Moore and Hoke, which are also the most prosperous counties in the region by median household income.³ The region has populations younger than the state median age in Cumberland, Robeson, and Hoke, and older populations in the remaining counties.

Weakening Labor Force

The labor force of the region (defined as the civilian, non-institutionalized population aged 16 and above who are employed or looking for employment) increased 2.1 percent since 2000, during which the state’s labor force grew by 17.8 percent.⁴ Since 2010, the region’s labor force declined but has regained some ground more recently, although still below the 2011 peak.

Losing Jobs

Since 2000, the Sandhills region’s jobs are down -1.7 percent (based on 2000 to 2016 annual averages) despite labor force growth of 2.1 percent. During the same time period, North Carolina’s number of jobs grew by 10.2 percent. To some degree this is the result of regional out-commuting, in which residents of the Sandhills region commute to jobs outside the region. Commuting to Wake County, for example, has increased by 2 to 4 percentage points for Cumberland, Moore, Hoke, and Robeson Counties since 2002.⁵

The change in jobs within the region varied widely by county, with positive gains in in Hoke (10%), Moore (9%), and Cumberland (8%), and declines in Scotland (-35%), Montgomery (-21%), Richmond (-19%), Columbus (-12%), Robeson (-7%), Bladen Counties (-3%), and no change in in Sampson (0%).

As the following chart shows, the industry mix of the region changed dramatically, with declines in Manufacturing jobs (-42%) being replaced to a lesser degree by jobs in Health Care and Social Assistance, Accommodation and Food Service, and Educational Services. As a comparison, North Carolina experienced a 39% loss in manufacturing employment during this period, although its gains in other industries were larger than in the Sandhills.

Not only did the total number of manufacturing jobs decrease during this period, the mix of manufacturing changed as well. Industries such as Fabric Mills, Cut and Sew Apparel, Apparel Knitting Mills and Rubber Products were some of the hardest hit, while the largest manufacturing industry, Animal Slaughtering and Processing, actually grew and now accounts for 30 percent of all Sandhills manufacturing. Other smaller manufacturing industries are also still important to the region, including Rubber Products, Motor Vehicle Parts, Fruit and Vegetable Preserving, and Electrical Equipment manufacturing.

Other stabilizing economic forces in the region include the large military presence in Cumberland County as well as agriculture, which both employ similar numbers in the region as they did in 2000.⁶ Overall, the region appears to have barely “treaded water” over the past 16 years, and continues to struggle with its economic transition.