Local Area Unemployment Rates Increase in Wake of Hurricane Helene

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just released county-level unemployment rate estimates for October 2024. These preliminary data offer a first look at the impact of Hurricane Helene on local labor markets in North Carolina.

For this analysis, we define “hurricane-affected areas” as counties approved for individual assistance under FEMA disaster declaration 4827, including the mountains of North Carolina and much of the western piedmont as well as Lee and Nash counties in the central and eastern portions of the state [Figure 1].¹ Unlike for most economic statistics, the BLS publishes county-level unemployment rates without any seasonal adjustments. Since these data are subject to large seasonal patterns, we compare October 2024 unemployment rates to the same month last year (October 2023) so that our analysis isn’t distorted by seasonal variation.

Figure 1

Overall, the combined unemployment rate of counties affected by Hurricane Helene was 3.8% in October 2024, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from October 2023. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for the rest of the state was 3.4%, decreasing 0.1 percentage point over the year.

Buncombe County was the hardest hit by far. The county’s unemployment rate jumped 6.1 percentage points over the year, from 2.7% in October 2023 to 8.8% in October 2024. At this time last year, Buncombe County had the lowest unemployment rate in the state; now, it has the highest.

Most counties affected by Hurricane Helene saw a much smaller labor market impact, or no impact at all. For example, Union County had an unemployment rate of 2.8% in October 2024, one of the lowest rates in the state and a decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year.

It’s important to emphasize that this represents only a first look at Helene’s impact on local labor markets. These data are still preliminary and are likely to be revised in the coming months as new information comes in. Moreover, these figures depict only the immediate impact of the hurricane on local area unemployment. Please reference our first article in this series for a complete list of disclaimers about what these data can and cannot tell us about the impact of the hurricane.

We anticipate that unemployment rates for October 2024 will be revised upward in some hurricane-affected areas as additional late-reported information is incorporated, while unemployment rates for November 2024 and beyond are likely to trend downward as the region starts to recover from Helene’s impact. However, the size of these revisions and the pace of any subsequent economic recovery are highly uncertain; we’ll need to wait for additional data before we can make any definitive statements.

The next set of employment data for hurricane-affected areas are scheduled for release on December 20, 2024, when preliminary estimates of job growth in November and revised estimates for October are published for the Asheville metro area. Preliminary county-level unemployment rate estimates for November and revised estimates for October will be released January 3, 2025.

¹ The North Carolina counties included in the most recently amended version of the FEMA declaration consist of Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Cherokee, Clay, Cleveland, Forsyth, Gaston, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Iredell, Jackson, Lee, Lincoln, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mecklenburg, Mitchell, Nash, Polk, Rowan, Rutherford, Stanly, Surry, Swain, Transylvania, Union, Watauga, Wilkes, Yadkin, and Yancey Counties.