North Carolina’s Regional Employment Outlook: 2022–2032 Occupational Projections

The Labor and Economic Analysis recently released the 2032 Regional Employment Projections for nearly 140 industries and 840 occupations. These projections estimate future workforce demand based on historical employment trends and a range of economic factors ^[i] and offer valuable insights for shaping education and workforce planning in North Carolina.

This blog highlights key findings from the 2022–2032 projections across North Carolina’s sixteen regions ^[ii] , covering overall employment trends and shifts in major occupational groups ^[iii] .

Key Highlights

• All sixteen regions are expected to add new jobs by 2032, with the fastest growth projected in the traditionally strong economic hubs of Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, and Wilmington. In contrast, Rocky Mount-Wilson region is projected to see the slowest growth with only 1.5% more jobs between 2022 and 2032.
• Nearly one-third of the state’s new jobs are expected to be added in the Charlotte region alone, exceeding the combined total of fourteen other Prosperity Zone sub-regions, excluding Raleigh-Durham. While traditionally known for its financial sector, Charlotte is projected to account for three out of every ten new jobs in both Production occupations and Construction & Extraction occupations statewide.
• Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Hickory, and Wilmington are the only four regions where over half of the net new jobs are expected in occupations with a median annual wage of $45,000 or higher. For the remaining regions, most of the new jobs are projected to fall below the $45,000wage level.
• Production occupations are projected to see modest growth — twelve regions are expected to add jobs and only four are projected to experience job losses.
• Office and Administrative Support occupations will show mixed trends — six regions are projected to gain jobs while ten are expected to see declines.
• Healthcare Support occupations; Food Preparation and Serving Related occupations; and Personal Care and Service occupations are projected to be the fastest growing occupational groups in most areas.
• Across all Prosperity Zone sub-regions, Food Preparation and Serving Related occupations – typically lower-paying and high-turnover jobs – are projected to rank first in both net new jobs and annual job openings. Depending on the region, these occupations are expected to account for between 9% to 39% of all net new jobs created between 2022 and 2032.
• In every region, jobs requiring at least some post-secondary education are projected to grow faster than those requiring lower educational attainment. However, more than half of all net new jobs across all regions are expected to require no formal education or only a high school diploma for entry into the occupation.

Total Employment

For the 2022-2032 period, overall employment is projected to expand in all Prosperity Zone sub-Regions, ranging from 1.5% in Rocky Mount-Wilson to 12.2% in Raleigh-Durham (Figure 1).

The largest job gains are projected in Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham, with approximately 153,000 and 146,000 new jobs, respectively (Figure 2). These two regions are also expected to be among the fastest-growing in the state, with projected employment increases of 11.8% for Charlotte and 12.2% for Raleigh-Durham by 2032. Wilmington, which has the 7th largest workforce among all sub-regions, is expected to add over 21,000 jobs—a growth of 11.5% by 2032.

Major Occupational Groups

Table 1 shows occupational employment projections in percentage change over the 2022-2032 period. 

• Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, and Wilmington are projected to see double-digit percentage growth rates in nearly all major occupational groups.
• Office and Administrative Support occupations; Sales and Related occupations; Food Preparation and Serving Related occupations; and Transportation and Material Moving occupations consistently represent the four largest groups by employment across most sub-regions. These groups are expected to remain the largest through 2032.
  • Office and Administrative Support occupations are expected to show varying trends across the state. Employment in this group is expected to grow moderately in six of the sixteen sub-regions, with the largest increases in Charlotte (+3.8%), Raleigh-Durham (+3.6%), and Wilmington (+3.4%). The remaining ten regions are projected to see declines, with the steepest decreases in Rocky Mount-Wilson (-7.0%) and Goldsboro-Kinston (-6.7%).
  • Sales and Related occupations are projected to experience moderate growth across most regions. The three fastest regions are expected to be Wilmington (+5.5%), Charlotte (+5.2%), and Raleigh-Durham (+5.0%). However, five regions are projected to see declines with the largest decreases projected in Rocky Mount-Wilson (-3.3%).
  • Food Preparation and Serving Related occupations are projected to add jobs in all sixteen regions, driven by population growth and the expansion of restaurants. The share of net new jobs is expected to range from 7.2% in Rocky Mount-Wilson to 15.2% in Pinehurst-Rockingham.
  • Transportation and Material Moving occupations are projected to add jobs in all regions. Job growth for this occupation group is expected to range from no change (0%) in Rocky Mount-Wilson to a 13.0% increase in Wilmington.
• Healthcare Support occupations; Food Preparation and Serving Related occupations; and Personal Care and Service occupations are projected to be the fastest-growing occupational groups in most regions.
• Production occupations are expected to see uneven growth across the state. Twelve regions are projected to add jobs in this sector, while the remaining four are expected to experience declines.
• Farming, Fishing, and Forestry occupations are projected to decline significantly in eight regions over the next decade, with only modest growth anticipated in the remaining areas.

Table 1. Regional Employment Projections (Total % change) by Major Occupational Group, 2022-2032

In addition to projecting overall employment changes, the occupational employment projections estimate job openings resulting from labor market turnover. These projections account for occupational separations—when workers either exit the labor force or change occupations, creating openings for replacement. For most occupations, separations generate significantly more job openings than employment growth alone. In fact, even declining occupations may still see numerous annual openings.

As shown in Table 2, occupations with traditionally high turnover rates and lower wages — such as Food Preparation and Serving Related, Transportation and Material Moving, and Office and Administrative Support — are expected to have high numbers of job openings across all regions. 

Table 2. Projected Regional Job Openings by Major Occupational Group, 2022-2032

Note: coloring scheme is individual for each geographic area and is based on the area relative employment size)

Educational Attainment

In terms of the minimum educational requirements for entry^[iv], the majority of net new jobs in all regions will require no formal education or only a high school diploma. However, there are notable regional differences (see Figure 3), ranging from 44% in Raleigh-Durham to 82% in Goldsboro-Kinston.

The highest demand for occupations typically requiring a bachelor’s degree is projected in Raleigh-Durham (37% of all net new jobs projected), Charlotte (35%), and Fayetteville-Lumberton (31%).

Jobs requiring a master’s, doctoral, or professional degree will account for approximately 2% to 12% of net new positions, with the greatest demand expected in Boone-Wilkesboro (10%) and Greenville (12%).

As growth rates and numbers of jobs with different entry-level educational requirements are expected to change, so will the composition of North Carolina’s labor force. Figure 4 illustrates projected changes in the share of jobs requiring at least some post-secondary education between 2022 and 2032.

In all but two regions, the share of individuals employed in jobs requiring post-secondary education is expected to increase over the next decade. The exceptions are Goldsboro-Kinston and Waynesville-Franklin which are projected to see a decrease in the proportion of jobs that require at least some post-secondary education.

Raleigh-Durham, which currently has the highest proportion of workers in jobs requiring education beyond high school, is expected to maintain that position through 2032.

Wages and Compensation

All but four regions (Charlotte, Hickory, Raleigh-Durham, and Wilmington) are projected to have over half of their net new jobs between 2022 and 2032 earning a median annual wage of less than $45,000^[v] (see Figure 5). Goldsboro-Kinston and Waynesville-Franklin are expected to have the highest shares of these lower-wage jobs.

In contrast, more than one-quarter of net new jobs in Raleigh-Durham (25%) and Charlotte (26%) are projected to pay median annual wages above $90,000 over the projection period. Along with Hickory and Wilmington, these two regions are also expected to see the largest increases in middle-income jobs, with median annual wages between $45,000 and $90,000.

Leveraging Employment Projections for Workforce and Education Planning