Author: Chi Wong
The Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) recently released the 2032 Regional Long Term Industry Projections for North Carolina. As reported in the summary of the 2032 Statewide Long Term Employment Projections earlier this year, over 500,000 new jobs are expected to be added to the North Carolina economy between 2022 and 2032, representing a percentage change of 10%[i]. However, these trends vary significantly by region and industry.
Employment Projection Regions
LEAD produces projections for 16 regions across the state. These regions were originally based on NC’s eight Prosperity Zones. Further analysis on commuting patterns combined with input from workforce and education partners helped define smaller regions (also known as Sub-Prosperity Zones, or Sub-PZs) that better reflect local labor markets within each Zone. Six of the eight Prosperity Zones are split in two, while Charlotte remains intact, and the Southeast Prosperity Zone has 3 sub-regions: Goldsboro-Kinston, Jacksonville-New Bern, and Wilmington.
Regional Growth Overview
All regions are expected to see employment gains, though these range from modest (Rocky Mount-Wilson) to significant (Raleigh-Durham):
Table 1 – Total, All Industries Growth by Region
Area Name | Employment Estimate 2022 | Employment Estimate 2032 | Net Change | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Raleigh-Durham | 1,196,917 | 1,342,983 | 146,066 | 12.2% |
Charlotte | 1,300,712 | 1,453,806 | 153,094 | 11.8% |
Wilmington | 188,506 | 210,193 | 21,687 | 11.5% |
North Carolina | 5,089,355 | 5,598,895 | 509,540 | 10.0% |
Asheville | 233,359 | 252,693 | 19,334 | 8.3% |
Waynesville-Franklin | 73,557 | 79,207 | 5,650 | 7.7% |
Jacksonville-New Bern | 131,033 | 140,259 | 9,226 | 7.0% |
Pinehurst-Rockingham | 66,337 | 70,977 | 4,640 | 7.0% |
Winston-Salem | 322,971 | 344,972 | 22,001 | 6.8% |
Elizabeth City | 63,527 | 67,418 | 3,891 | 6.1% |
Greensboro | 454,042 | 477,728 | 23,686 | 5.2% |
Boone-Wilkesboro | 79,700 | 83,830 | 4,130 | 5.2% |
Hickory | 184,622 | 192,399 | 7,777 | 4.2% |
Fayetteville-Lumberton | 242,788 | 252,884 | 10,096 | 4.2% |
Greenville | 145,728 | 151,480 | 5,752 | 3.9% |
Goldsboro-Kinston | 98,032 | 100,595 | 2,563 | 2.6% |
Rocky Mount-Wilson | 96,053 | 97,454 | 1,401 | 1.5% |
The largest metropolitan areas are projected to lead in job expansion, with Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Wilmington anticipated to exceed the statewide growth rate and Asheville coming in just slightly below. The baseline assumption is that western NC, including Asheville, will fully recover from Hurricane Helene over the long term and return to its pre-storm growth trend by 2032.
Within this growth, certain sectors stand out more than others. All regions are expected to add jobs in both Service-providing and Goods-producing sectors, with stronger gains in service industries in most areas. The four Sub-Prosperity Zones that diverge from this trend - Elizabeth City, Goldsboro-Kinston, Greenville, and Rocky Mount-Wilson - are projected to see more growth in the Goods-producing industries.
Below is a map highlighting the leading industry sectors[ii] by projected percentage growth in each region:
The two sectors that lead in most regions are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services, which tops five of the sixteen Sub-PZs, and Accommodation and Food Services, which leads in four Sub-PZs. Growth in Professional Services is driven by different industries across these regions: Computer Systems Design and Related Services in Charlotte, Greenville, and Raleigh-Durham, and Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services in Jacksonville-New Bern and Pinehurst-Rockingham.
As for Accommodation and Food Services, the leading growth for all four areas is mostly owed to expected gains in Food Services and Drinking Places. Other regions are projected to see the strongest growth across a variety of sectors, including Administrative Services, Health Care and Social Assistance, Real Estate, Construction, and Transportation and Warehousing.
While most regions’ projected increases are not led by Real Estate and Health Care and Social Assistance, their growth is still significant across the state. These sectors are projected to be among the top 5 in percentage change for more than half the areas, as shown in Table 2:
Table 2 – Projected Industry Employment Growth Rates by Region (2022–2032)
Why Do Projections Matter?
By 2032, every region in North Carolina is projected to experience employment growth, with service-providing industries driving expansion in most areas. Top growth sectors – such as Professional Services, Accommodation and Food Services, Real Estate, and Health Care and Social Assistance – are expected to rank among the five fastest-growing industries in at least half of the sixteen substate regions.
These projections offer valuable insights to support future planning efforts. Workforce boards and economic developers can use the data to strengthen strategic planning, prioritize resource allocation, and attract or retain businesses. Career counselors and job seekers can identify which industries are likely to add new jobs, while education and training providers can better align programs with emerging labor market trends. In short, these projections can help stakeholders and communities to anticipate both opportunities and challenges in North Carolina’s evolving economy.
To further explore LEAD’s 2032 employment projections, including detailed industries, visit the projections data table or the Industry Projections dashboard.
[i] The total of the regional employment projections does not sum up to the state-wide employment projections since some employment is not tied to a specific location and is assigned to the state as a whole.
[ii] In some regions, the data shows Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation or Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction as the fastest growing industry. In these cases, we highlight the next fastest growing industry. For Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, this growth is expected early in the projection period as the industry was still recovering from the impacts of COVID-19 in 2022. In the case of Mining, this industry has low employment in 2022 across all areas, making its designation as the fastest growing industry misleading.