The Road Ahead: North Carolina’s 2032 Employment Projections

The Labor & Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) has recently unveiled North Carolina’s long-term employment projections through 2032. The projections offer in-depth insight into both industry and occupational trends, with the full data available on our web-site. This blog is part of the projections series highlighting key statewide trends and findings. Additionally, projections for the sub-state areas will be released at a later time. 

Key Findings

Total employment

North Carolina is projected to add over 500,000 new jobs between 2022 and 2032, with employment growing at an average annual rate of 0.96% between 2022 and 2032. While this growth rate is lower than the 1.33% average seen over the past three decades, it remains significantly higher than the projected national average of 0.28% for the same period.

Industry Employment Projections

• The Service-providing sector is projected to contribute nearly 88% of all net new jobs created.   
• Health Care and Social Assistance, the state’s largest industry by employment, is expected to add 101,500 new jobs by 2032.
• The Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation industry, along with the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services industry, are projected to be the fastest growing sectors, accounting for nearly 16,000 and 62,000 new jobs, respectively.
• The Manufacturing industry is anticipated to experience slow growth, with just over 16,000 jobs in the next decade.
• Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting is the only sector projected to lose jobs, though the decline is expected to be marginal.

Occupational Employment Projections

• North Carolina is projected to have over 628,000 job openings annually, driven by nearly 254,000 openings from separation of existing workers, 323,600 from job changes and transfers, and almost 51,000 from economic expansion[1].
• Occupations in Computer and Mathematical, Healthcare Support, and Healthcare Practitioners and Technical groups are projected to be among the fastest-growing due to specialized skills.
• Production Occupations will see modest growth, reflecting the slow but steady trend within the Manufacturing sector.
• High turnover is anticipated in Food Preparation and Serving Related, as well as Sales and Related Occupations with over 84,000 and 70,000 annual job openings, respectively, presenting abundant entry-level opportunities.
• The share of occupations requiring no formal educational or high school diploma is projected to decline from 60.8% to 59.4% over the next decade; however, these occupations still account for most of the job openings (68.8%) due to high separation rates leading to ongoing demand.