Author: Oleksandr Movchan
Following our earlier blog highlighting the trends and findings of the North Carolina’s long-term employment projections, we now delve into a detailed analysis of employment projections across specific industry in the state.
Service-Providing Industries
Similar to the national trends, Service-providing industries in North Carolina are projected to add more jobs than Goods-producing industries. This sector accounted for nearly 80% of the state’s total employment in 2022 and is expected to create approximately 446,000 new jobs by 2032.
The Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation is projected to be the fastest growing sector with an annualized growth rate of 1.93%, adding nearly 16,000 jobs. However, much of this growth is expected in the initial years as the sector continues to rebound from the COVID-19 impacts. In 2020, this sector lost 25% of its jobs, and its employment in 2022 remained below the pre-pandemic levels.
The Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services is anticipated to be the second fastest-growing sector, with an annualized growth rate of 1.79%. It is also expected to rank second in net job change, adding over 62,000 new jobs in the coming decade. This sector has been historically strong and is crucial to the state economy, especially since it tends to pay relatively high wages due to specialized technical skills.
Health Care and Social Assistance, the largest service sector by employment, is projected to create nearly 102,000 new jobs by 2032. Almost half of this growth will be within Ambulatory Health Care Services, driven by increased demand for health care services by North Carolina’s aging population.[1]
The Accommodation and Food Services sector is expected to add over 61,000 jobs by 2032, largely in the Food Services and Drinking Places industry.
Retail Trade, North Carolina’s second-largest employment sector, is projected to experience modest growth of 4.01%, adding just under 21,000 new jobs. The Wholesale Trade sector is expected to grow by 5.85%, contributing nearly 12,000 jobs.
The Educational Services sector is projected to expand by 9.15%, with over 34,000 new jobs, largely driven by growth in the Elementary/Secondary Schools and the Colleges/Universities/Professional Schools.
Goods-Producing Industries
The Goods-producing sector is expected to grow at a much slower pace compared to the Service-providing sector. This is largely driven by the Construction industry, which is projected to have an 8.16% increase in employment, adding over 20,000 jobs by 2032.
In contrast to the national trends, where Manufacturing is expected to decline by 0.88%, North Carolina will see a modest growth of 3.48% in this sector, adding approximately 16,500 jobs.
Significant job gains are anticipated in Food Manufacturing (+4,500), Machinery Manufacturing (+4,100), Chemical Manufacturing (+3,600), and Transportation Equipment Manufacturing (+2,600). However, Textile Mills (-4,200) and Apparel Manufacturing (-2,500) are projected to experience the most job losses.
Employment in the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting industry is expected to decrease slightly by 59 jobs, driven by a reduction in Animal Production and Aquaculture (-459), which is nearly offset by a small gain in Crop Production (+466).
[1] Based on the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management projections (https://www.osbm.nc.gov/demog/county-projections), the share of population aged 55 and above is expected to increase from 30% to 32% between 2022 and 2032.