The Road Ahead: North Carolina’s 2032 Employment Projections, Part 3: Occupational Trends

As we conclude our three-part series on North Carolina’s 2032 employment projections, we shift our focus to the future of talent demands. After examining overall employment trends and industry outlooks in the previous articles, we now dive into to occupational projections, providing valuable insights into job prospects and educational requirements.

Occupational Employment Growth

North Carolina is projected to have over 628,000 job openings annually, driven by nearly 254,000 openings from separation of existing workers, 323,600 from job changes and transfers, and almost 51,000 from economic expansion[1].  The following five largest occupational groups together are expected to account for almost half of the total employment in 2032:

• Office and Administrative Support Occupations (Customer Service Representatives, Office Clerks, Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, etc.)
• Sales and Related Occupations (Cashiers, Salespersons, Sales Representatives, etc.)
• Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (Cooks, Waiters and Waitresses, etc.)
• Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (Material Movers, Stockers and Order Fillers, Truck Drivers, etc.)
• Management Occupations

All these occupational groups are projected to gain jobs by 2032, with three experiencing significant expansion:  Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (+55,700), Transportation and Material Moving (+55,500), and Management Occupations (+45,900), each increasing by over 10%.

By 2032, Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (Doctors, Nurses, Technicians, etc.) and Healthcare Support Occupations (Healthcare Aides, Assistants, etc.) are projected to add 55,000 and 33,600 jobs, respectively.

Other rapidly growing occupational groups include Business & Financial Operations (e.g., Accountants, Market Research Analysts) and Computer & Mathematical Occupations (e.g., Software Developers, Computer Support Specialists), projected to gain 41,600 and 37,900 jobs, respectively.

Computer & Mathematical Occupations are projected to grow the fastest, followed by Healthcare Support Occupations, Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations, Personal Care & Service Occupations (Childcare Workers, Hairdressers, Animal Caretakers, etc.), and Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations (Chemists, Environmental Scientists, Social Science Research Assistants, etc.).

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations is the only occupational group projected to decline, eliminating about 330 jobs by 2032.

Occupations at both the lowest and highest ends of the wage scale will experience the fastest growth.  Jobs with median annual wages below the statewide 25th percentile ($32,910) are expected to increase by 13%, from 676,300 to 764,000 jobs between the 2022-2032 period. Jobs with median annual wages above the statewide 75th percentile ($67,980), are expected to grow by 15%, from 1.32 million to 1.52 million jobs during the same period. In contrast, occupations with median annual wages between the 25^th and 75^th percentiles are expected to grow by only 7%.

Despite the stark wage differences, many high-growth occupations share a common trait: the dominance of non-routine tasks that are difficult to automate. However, jobs with a high degree of routine work, such as Production, Agriculture, and Office/Administrative Occupations, are projected to grow slowly or decline.

Job Openings

Net employment change is a key indicator of occupational growth, reflecting new job creation due to economic or demographic shifts. However, job openings might also arise from labor market turnover, such as when workers exit the labor force or move to different occupations. Occupational employment projections account for these openings, often revealing that separations create significantly more job opportunities than employment growth.

On average, at the state level, job openings from separations are 11.3 times greater than those from growth. This ratio varies widely among the occupation groups, from 2.9 for Computer and Mathematical Occupations to an impressive 250 times for high-turnover Office and Administrative Support Occupations. For instance, despite Office & Administrative Support Occupations being among the slowest-growing sectors, this group will remain one of the top five in annual job openings due to turnover.

The largest number of total annual openings will occur in occupations with traditionally high turnover rates or those require minimal skills or training, including Food Preparation & Serving Related Occupations; Sales & Related Occupations; Transportation & Material Moving Occupations; Office & Administrative Support Occupations; and Production Occupations. All of these are also among the lower-paying jobs, with annual median wages ranging from $27,920 in Food Preparation & Serving Related Occupations to $40,680 in Office and Administrative Support Occupations, all below the state median wage of $45,440.

Educational Attainment

In 2022, occupations requiring no formal education or only a high school diploma accounted for 60.8% of total employment; however, this is projected to decline to 59.4% by 2032. In contrast, the share of occupations requiring education beyond high school is expected to grow moderately at each educational level. Through 2032, jobs requiring higher education are projected to experience faster annual growth than those needing less education.  For instance, positions requiring a Master’s, Doctoral, or professional degree are projected to grow the fastest.

While over 129,000 annual job openings are projected for those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, occupations requiring a high school diploma or no formal education will see significantly more openings – over 430,000 each year – primarily due to high transfer and exit rates.